With the growing uptake of GLP-1 agonists like Ozempic and Wegovy, shopper conduct and preferences will inevitably change. This ripple impact will likely be felt throughout industries starting from meals and beverage to prescribed drugs to shopper items.
The impression of GLP-1 agonists on product choices and sectors:
Based mostly on an in-depth evaluation of the rising demand for GLP-1 agonists and the correlated demographics, we forecast the next 7 modifications in shopper conduct. These modifications will likely be seen throughout the subsequent 5 years.
Lower in industries that help junk meals consumption:
As GLP-1RA customers develop into extra portion-sensitive, the demand for high-calorie, low-nutrient meals will begin to decline per capita. This decline in consumption per capita could not result in a realized decline for the trade however relatively act as a drag on development. This, in flip, will have an effect on the packaging, logistics, provide chain, and different help industries for the junk meals trade.
Lower in items supporting sedentary existence:
Merchandise that help and are supported by inactivity will see diminished development. These may embody gaming, in-home devices, and actually snug furnishings.
Lower in merchandise negatively affecting bodily and psychological well being:
Gadgets detrimental to well-being, similar to alcohol and tobacco, would possibly develop into much less standard because the willpower used to cut back meals consumption could be redirected elsewhere.
Elevated development in industries supporting wholesome meals:
The demand for nutritious, entire meals will rise per capita, and the industries supporting the creation, sale, and use of those merchandise are to profit from this development. Merchandise like blenders, juicers, and air-fryers that allow wholesome cooking may really feel the advantages.
Improve in gross sales for items supporting energetic existence:
Gross sales of health tools, sportswear, and associated merchandise will improve per capita. As every model on this area seems to be on the potential results of those medication, they might want to consider clothes sizing to satisfy new physique shapes.
We additionally anticipate a nearer-term rising marketplace for plus-size athleisure as GLP-1RA customers flip to bodily train to spice up their well being alongside any weight reduction. This potential development within the health trade may encourage hope for a extra energetic and wholesome future.
A tailwind for the cosmetics and sweetness trade:
Skincare merchandise and coverings that help firmness, face contouring, and physique sculpting will see development from the growing variety of GLP-1 customers who’re losing a few pounds and discover that their pores and skin wants help in the course of the weight reduction transition and thereafter.
A lift in merchandise selling bodily and psychological well being:
Nutraceuticals, nutritional vitamins, and different objects designed to reinforce well-being may see a surge in reputation, the place GLP-1RA customers’ discount in meals causes concern for vitamin and mineral consumption. This potential surge in reputation for merchandise selling bodily and psychological well being may encourage a constructive outlook on the potential advantages of GLP-1RA.
The information behind these predictions:
As we discover the broader impression of GLP-1 agonists and the ripple results in shopper profiles, it’s key to grasp right this moment’s panorama and the modifications we’ve been seeing previously few years and months.
A rising demand for GLP-1 agonist prescriptions
Prescriptions for these medical interventions are nonetheless accelerating. Evaluation of anonymized digital well being document information launched by Truveta confirmed a 20.9% development in prescriptions for GLP-1 medication in Q1 2024.
Knowledge from Google Tendencies additionally present rising consciousness and curiosity within the main GLP-1RA drug, Ozempic. The information reveals that the Ozempic search quantity has elevated from 2019 to 2024 (Determine 1).
Determine 1: Relative weekly search frequency for the time period ‘Ozempic’ utilizing the Google Search Engine. The determine reveals a big improve within the quantity of searches for “Ozempic” in the USA from July 2019 to July 2024, peaking round mid-2023. It signifies rising public curiosity and consciousness over time. (Source)
Additional exploring the info, Determine 2 reveals the areas of the USA with the best quantity of searches for Ozempic over the past 5 years and within the final quarter. The development has shifted to the northeast and southwest of the nation.
Determine 2: The determine illustrates the relative search reputation of “Ozempic” by state in the USA, evaluating information from the final 5 years (left) with information from the final 90 days (proper). (Source)
The continued development in uptake of GLP-1 agonists is unsure. That is because of the required injection, prices, and unwanted effects as potential limitations to development.
Modeling of the market dimension and penetration of those medication varies broadly, with estimates of 15 – 70 million patients by 2028 in several eventualities. Truveta’s information confirmed that for his or her subset of the inhabitants, 85% of prescriptions had been for diabetes mellitus and solely 15% for weight problems.
Regardless of the modest prescription numbers presently reported (~1.4% of the inhabitants), Walmart’s analysis confirmed a downturn in whole meals buying correlated to the rise in GLP-1RA. These interventions are comparatively new, and trials are ongoing for brand new indicators of obesity-related illnesses.
If FDA-approved and coated by Medicare insurance coverage, we’ll probably see a surge in prescriptions throughout the US. Our earlier report offered a extra detailed evaluation of the continued development development of their uptake.
Influence on healthcare
An elevated uptake of GLP-1 agonists will undoubtedly have an effect on the healthcare trade. These medication can scale back obesity-related medical illnesses, resulting in fewer interventions. Whereas this represents an amazing social good, it additionally poses dangers to the enterprise buildings of contemporary pharmaceutical firms.
It is because these firms would want to adapt to this new panorama. Their leaders are presently grappling with these modifications, balancing the promise of improved public well being with potential shifts in income fashions.
Influence on meals & beverage
Within the meals & beverage trade, the growing use of GLP-1 agonists like Semaglutide may result in a shift in shopper preferences. As these medication make weight reduction simpler, shoppers could begin to choose more healthy meals choices.
This shift drives demand for merchandise that promote sustainable weight and weight problems administration. Such modifications in shopper conduct may current each challenges and alternatives for companies within the meals & beverage trade.
Adapting to those market shifts, Nestlé is launching Vital Pursuit, a brand new line of frozen meals merchandise particularly for shoppers on weight reduction drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy. This initiative addresses the rising want for meals choices that help dietary modifications influenced by GLP-1 agonists.
Influence on shopper items
These drugs, primarily recognized for his or her efficacy in weight administration, may have far-reaching penalties that might reshape shopper conduct throughout industries.
This potential change in shopper profile for a lot of American shoppers must be assessed as a enterprise threat and alternative for companies throughout totally different industries, together with the CPG trade.
Right here, we doc some areas the place these medication could act as catalysts for everlasting life-style modifications and what that may imply for shopper items trade leaders.
Optimistic suggestions loops: One good factor results in one other
Research into weight-reduction plan and constructive suggestions loops has historically centered on the challenges dieters face in breaking the cycle of weight gain. Certainly, a 2022 examine discovered that after stopping a routine of Semaglutide, the energetic ingredient in Ozempic, sufferers regained 2/3rds of the load loss inside one yr. This means customers should be supported to make life-style modifications.
Conversely, these medication have been discovered to have synergistic results with train, offering higher outcomes than every intervention alone. This mix of train and GLP-1 agonists was seen to assist sufferers preserve weight reduction after stopping the drug intervention.
We may hypothesize that sustaining the train may result in a virtuous cycle of positive feelings and behaviors. These emotions of company and exterior validation reinforce and promote a collection of wholesome behaviors.
In probably the most optimistic state of affairs, using GLP-1 agonists may result in what we name “advantage spirals.” In these spirals, weight reduction may result in:
- Elevated bodily exercise
- More healthy meals decisions
- Sustained weight administration
This constructive suggestions loop may affect extra than simply food plan and train. It promotes higher decision-making and elevated company in different areas of life. Consequently, industries that depend on unhealthy habits, similar to tobacco and alcohol, may see a decline in demand.
GLP-1 agonist person demographics
Research have damaged down the bigger statistics to establish the sections of society which can be taking GLP-1 agonists. A survey of 100,000 folks by Numerator claims to have discovered that 47% of GLP-1 customers take the drug for weight reduction. 74% of those people purpose to shed greater than 15 kilos. Moreover, 63% use it for diabetes, and 14% use it for each functions.
Total, GLP-1 customers are largely Gen X, African American, or Hispanic and have decrease incomes than non-users. Nevertheless, these utilizing it for weight reduction are typically youthful and have increased incomes, whereas these utilizing it for diabetes are inclined to have decrease incomes.
A examine from the College of Michigan Medical School in Ann Arbor examined US information between 2020 and 2023. It revealed that prescriptions for younger folks went up by over 600%, and younger girls had been 200% extra prone to be taking GLP-1 agonists than younger males. For comparability, at a peak of GLP-1 allotting in early 2023, younger girls (18-25 years outdated) got 45,000 doses in comparison with lower than 15,000 doses to younger males (18-25 years outdated).
Due to this fact, manufacturers that attraction to younger feminine clients, similar to magnificence and cosmetics, might be the primary shopper items manufacturers to see an impression from any change in conduct.
Trade impression: Instructed winners and losers
The next desk summarizes our predictions of the long run impression of GLP-1 on varied industries.
PreScouter’s strategic suggestions:
As leaders in scientific analysis and consulting, PreScouter helps its purchasers see the massive image and the way tendencies can impression their companies.
As these medication develop into extra prevalent, firms throughout sectors should anticipate and adapt to the evolving shopper preferences of this rising demographic of ‘beforehand obese and overweight.’ By embracing this shift, companies can survive and thrive in a panorama more and more outlined by health-conscious shoppers.
PreScouter recommends the next methods:
- Governance: Introducing this development as a threat or alternative inside your corporation’s technique discussions.
- Monitoring: Proceed to watch the expansion of the GLP-1RA person demographic. Additionally, conduct market analysis to grasp the breakdown of weight reduction demographic.
- Innovation and R&D: Put money into innovation to design merchandise that capitalize on the expansion on this demographic.
- Market positioning: Supporting customers on their weight reduction journey will improve model loyalty and open new income streams.
- Early indicators: Any impression within the shopper items trade could lag in comparison with the meals and beverage or healthcare sectors. Look ahead to motion in these sectors to find out whether or not you must speed up your threat administration plans.
The PreScouter group may help your group with its analysis and consultancy wants, bridging the hole between new developments and sensible implementation methods. This steerage will allow you to capitalize on the potential advantages of a rising weight reduction market.
